France, Germany play safe during China Premier Li's European trip
EU powers pursue uncontroversial public agenda with Beijing's new No. 2
HAMBURG, Germany -- Chinese Premier Li Qiang avoided public clashes on a high-profile visit to Germany and France this week, in what analysts see as a sign of the European nations' reluctance to alienate Beijing.
Li's closely watched first overseas trip since becoming his country's No. 2 leader in March is viewed as highlighting German fears about exposure to the Chinese economy and France's will to cooperate with Beijing where possible.
The choice of Germany and France for Li's six-day tour reflects both their status as the European Union's two leading powers and the more problematic relations between Beijing and other European capitals. Italy is currently discussing a withdrawal from China's infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative, Eastern European countries are put off by Beijing's support for Moscow, and northern European countries are growing increasingly wary about China and Russia's ambitions in the Arctic.
"This larger picture puts Germany and France into China's focus, with Germany being China's chess piece for preventing anti-China protectionism from slowing the Chinese economy further," said Reinhard Biedermann, a German professor of international relations at Tamkang University in Taipei.
"France, for its part, is China's chess piece for the safeguarding of a Europe that is not drawn by the U.S. against China."
Analysts noted the extent to which the governments of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron went out of their way to accommodate China.
As a curtain raiser for the seventh China-Germany intergovernmental consultation, Li was received by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who protocolary stands one layer above Li. After talks between as many as 26 Chinese and German ministers, Scholz and Li then held a news conference in which journalists were not allowed to field questions, which was in clear breach of the China policy of Scholz's predecessor Angela Merkel, who had always insisted on doing news conferences according to western standards. Scholz also presented Li with a rhetorical goody by stressing that Germany has no interest in economic decoupling from China.
While Scholz urged China to use more of its influence on Russia to stop the Ukraine war, he did not publicly mention other hot topics, such as Taiwan, forced labor or strengthening Chinese industrial espionage against German companies, as recently expressed by Germany's domestic intelligence agency. According to the German government, the two sides agreed to launch a climate dialogue and signed memorandums of understanding in the realms of electric and hydrogen mobility.
"There might be a big discrepancy in what has been made public about Li's visit and what the German government has said behind closed doors, but that Berlin agreed to use China's rules for press engagement means it has allowed to be pushed into a weak corner," said Lutz Berners of Berners Consulting, which advises German government departments and businesses on China-related projects.
"Considering that Scholz had his inaugural visit to Beijing over half a year ago, and Li now completed his inaugural visit to Berlin with such a high-level delegation, it is notable how few tangible results have been presented."
Berners attributed the underwhelming results to the worsening economic situation in China that worries Berlin because of German companies' heavy exposure to the country. With a bilateral trade volume of nearly 300 billion euros ($328 billion), 2022 was the seventh consecutive year in which China was Germany's largest trade partner. Several German conglomerates, such as BASF, Merck, Siemens and BMW, have recently invested heavily in China or have announced plans to do so.
At a stopover in Munich, Li met with Siemens and BMW, as well as Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder, who echoed Scholz's rhetoric of opposing a decoupling from China.
Li then headed to Paris, where he met with President Macron at a summit of the New Global Financing Pact, a Macron-initiated initiative whose stated goal is to build a new contract between the countries of the Global North and South to address climate change.
Macron had indicated that he wants France and Europe to deepen ties with China. After a visit to China in April, he made headlines by saying that France should not follow the U.S. in responding to Beijing's moves in the Taiwan Strait.
Like in Berlin, Li was given an unusually high-profile treatment in Paris, with French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin meeting him before a meeting with the president. Macron raised some eyebrows when rushing down a staircase in an apparent attempt to personally open the door of Li's limousine despite protocolary standing one layer above Li.
"Like Li's Berlin visit, also the Paris visit doesn't reflect the ongoing debate in Europe about de-risking from China, human rights, Taiwan tensions and China's extraterritorial police stations in Europe," said Marc Julienne, head of China Research at the Center for Asian Studies of the French Institute of International Relations.
"Macron and Li dealt with the positive topics only and brushed the sensitive ones under the carpet, which is probably partly explained by Macron needing China's help in making his new climate financing initiative a success," he added.